The famous media historian Niall Ferguson has published a new book entitled The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die. This is the latest and probably a true prophecy on the end of the Western Civilization.
Ferguson is a wise man that clearly sees all the stupidity of so called welfare state that inevitably leads the civilization to a collapse. In fact Fergusson tries to analyze a much wider problem on the side effects of richness and wealth.
Ha points the heavy regulation and too much redistribution of wealth between generations. Also points the problems of ruining the legal base and the power of law in favor of the power of bureaucracy.
But all this is nothing new. If you look at the history of Rome, it was exactly the same. All great civilizations fall down under the weight of wealth. When becoming too rich you become too lazy and with too low morale. And everything crushes down.
Today we think things like gay marriage and abortion are a logical development of the human rights. But from macro-social point of view they are something different. They are an erosion of the old moral system, without a new moral system ready to replace it. Yes the old moral system is not perfect. It really does not guarantee absolute rights and absolute freedom for everyone. But this system does work and regulates well enough the social system. When we ruin it, the system simply collapses. Prof. Ferguson in fact sees some of the consequences of this crash, and points them.
But let's look again at Rome. It is a very interesting case. In fact not all of the Rome goes to crash. There is some difference on East and on West. On West the moral crash is entire and the empire is destroyed. But on the East half of it survives under the name Eastern Roman Empire and lives 10 more centuries. Why this happens? The answer is very simple. The Eastern Empire adopts the principles of Christianity and builds up a new state, based on the new and strong moral system. At the same time, on the West the Empire is seized by pagan monarchs and the old romans are too weak and with a too low morale to survive. Sexual perversions were something normal on the West, and something very unusual on the East, under the new Christianity. And this is just one instance
Ferguson says too much redistribution of wealth between generations. He means too much money on pensions and medical services for the old. But the same old had too small number of children when they were young. So now the proportion between the old and the young (that work to pay taxes) is worse. But when we look at 60s and 70s, with the sexual revolution, the crush of the old morale and the rise of modern thinking (including abortion), we can understand that the problem has started then. And not now. If we count the number of abortions that happened after Roe v. Vade decision we will see tens of millions of missing young men that today would have worked for their older parents
Today we call the gay rights the new level of human rights. But we miss that this increases the number of gays, as being a gay becomes not only legal, but popular. Much people become gays, not because they are really gays, but because of the modern approach. Just like with smoking and drugs. But when the gay number increases, then it is normal the birth rate to decline. The old de facto anti-gay moral system prevented this. It was not a perfect and ideal system. In fact it was some repressive system. But it worked for guaranteeing the macro-needs of the society. We still have no an alternative moral system. At the same time the old one is evolutionally dismantled.
So who will work in future to feed the society? May be the missing babies of gay couples?
May be the immigration is a decision. But a very fast immigration de facto changes the society. Every immigrant needs decades to integrate. If meanwhile the society changes due to too much immigration, then not the immigrant will be absorbed, but the immigrants will absorb the society.
So Prof. Ferguson is right that the society is collapsing. It is inevitable. The society is ill of a lacking moral fulcrum. The moral was ruined decades ago. Today we are making the next move in ruing it. We call this new human rights. In 20-30 years some professor will call it too much on Medicaid and pensions, no taxpayers.
What will be the outcome of all this? Very simple Rome says is the barbarians will establish a new society on the ruins of old one. Who are todays barbarians? Nobody knows. May be Muslims, may be South American Catholics, may be even Africans (Ferguson points some African nations as very prospective). But in any case it will be someone that still has a stable morale, a great birth rate and not too much new types of human rights
June 23rd 2013