The yield on Spanish bonds is again rising, passing for some moments the first crucial line of 6%. And that is just the beginning. At the same time Spanish government is doing... nothing. When the new yield-rise started the prime minister Mariano Rajoy said nothing but "situation is extremely difficult". Some days later the economy minister Luis de Guindos declined to rule out a rescue of almost bankrupted country. So all that Spanish officials are saying is that they are not absolutely sure the country will not need a bailout.
This way the Spanish government not only is refusing to reform its country, but
is also additionally destabilizing markets by using verbal methods.
So what in fact is Spain doing?
I think Spain is betting on a new, an may be bigger than already happened,
money-print round. Spain is betting on being "too big to fail" that
will force the other stable countries in EU to pay for its salvation. I suppose
the bailout will be realized with a newly printed money, because tax incomes in
Germany, France and other donors are not enough for massive bailouts. In fact
even up to current moment, the mini-bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal
were financed by loans and money-prints, and not by the stable-countries'
budgets. The governments simply issued guarantees and in exchange the banks
gave money to the emergency fund, taking this money from ECB at record low
interest. So in fact, the money is simply new money created from nothing in ECB
Spain knows that if it is to default this will crush the entire euro-zone and
may be the entire European union. And as the euro and the Union are precious
for some other countries, so they will save Spain. So Spain needs nothing else,
than to wait. When the new money come, along with a new inflation, everything
in Spanish budget will become OK.
If the money was gold and unlimited bailouts based on printed money were
impossible, then the real needed policy for Spain would be a default, a
reduction in social payments, lowering pensions and salaries, deregulating the
business and even... lowering taxes to stimulate the companies. These would be
the real reforms to address its disintegrating economy. But why you need all
this pain when the Germans and European bureaucrats are ready to pay the bill?
It is more wise just to wait to be saved... :)
And the salvation is on its way. First rumors of European Central Bank possible
intervention has already appeared. Mr Draghi will may be prefer bond-purchases
instead of new 3-year loans. This way of printing money is may be with better
results, as passed experience demonstrated... :)))